Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité? The Role of Spatial Inequalities in Understanding the Growth of the Anti-System Vote in 2022 French Presidential Elections

In April 2022, the French presidential elections were held, where in the second round, two candidates who embodied the Europeanist and pro-establishment option (Macron) and the populist and anti-system option (Le Pen) faced each other. This situation, combined with the high level of spatial disaggregation of socioeconomic information within the French statistical system, makes this case an especially interesting contribution to the analysis of how the persistence of spatial inequalities at the local level, which 'leaves behind' certain areas from general socioeconomic progress, contributes to the increase of populism and anti-system political options. After applying a model controlling for the spatial dependence of the data, it is possible to verify that local spatial inequalities truly matter in understanding the dynamics of political discontent; the relative income position of each locality within a group of neighbours is important in the sense that, after controlling for several place-specific characteristics, local areas that are poorer than their neighbours tend to have a higher anti-system vote share, and vice versa. Other relevant conclusions are obtained that confirm and expand conclusions from the 'geography of discontent' literature and remark on the importance of cohesion policies, also at the local and territorial level, to reduce the populism vote