Long-range forecasting for telecommunications : The role of systems analysis

Three methods of long-range forecasting used in telecommunications demand research are examined. Successful application of each technique depends on the validity of a number of concepts. The author questions whether the concepts used in past research were valid. The technique which he has developed for explicitly modelling the 'structure' of systems is described, together with an outline of its use within the areas of technical innovation diffusion, and market place conditions for the acceptability of new services.