LONG RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SORGHUM YIELD, RAINFALL AND PRODUCER PRICE IN NIGERIA

Agricultural crop production in Nigeria is mostly rain fed. Therefore any change in climatic factors such as changes in rainfall could alter crop yield. On the other hand prices of agricultural commodities give signals to producers over the type and quantity of commodity to produce. This study investigated the relationship between sorghum yield, rainfall, and producer price in Nigeria for a period of 40 years (1970-2010). The stationarity properties of the data were tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The ADF test conducted on the specified time series data showed that all series were integrated of order I(1). The Johansen co integration test and vector error correction model (VECM) were applied to test for the long-run relationship among the variables and stability of the long-run equilibrium. The result indicated that there was at least one co integrating equation between the variables implying the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables examined. Consequently, policy and measures that can help farmers adapt to changing climatic factors as well as guarantee relative price for crops in general and sorghum in particular should be put in place to encourage the cultivation of sorghum and enhance its yield.