Long-term and Short-term Dynamics of the Economic System According to Method of Systems Potential (english version).

The new method of system dynamics, Method of System Potential (MSP), is applied for examination of long-term and short-term dynamics of the Economic System. According to MSP two ways of long-term development of a system exist: (1) cyclical and (2) noncyclical dynamics of efficiency index of a system is possible. The cyclical type of development is based on periodical renewal of a system while the noncyclical way means that the system stagnate. Innovative processes are intensively stimulated in first-type systems (with cyclical dynamics) while the second-type systems needs the special pressing instance for realization of innovations. The systems with cyclical dynamics tend to the separate existence (private ownership system)of its constituents because the collapse into united wholeness leads to fall of total 'potential' in a united system . Consolidation of systems with noncyclical dynamics tends to the increment in the total 'potential' of united system. Hypothesis that these two qualitatively different ways of development correspond to 'West' and 'East' ways of evolution is discussed. MSP-cyclical dynamics of economic system corresponds to some quantitative version of N.Kaldor' (1940) business cycle model. Interrelation between MSP business cycle model and N.Kaldor' model is discussed.