Long-term Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Traffic

With oil supplies limited and demand growing, oil prices are likely to continue to rise in the long term. This will affect notably motor vehicle traffic and aviation, with their fuel consumption accounting for around 70 percent of the overall consumption of mineral oil products. Previous price surges have not had a lasting effect on longer-term traffic developments. Although the import price of crude oil has risen at three times the pace of the consumer price index since 1970, nominal freight haulage prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of the 1980s, thanks to improvements in productivity. Traffic by carriers with the highest specific energy consumption – airlines, private motor vehicles and freight trucks – has increased much more strongly than rail and bus traffic.