LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF INTERNATIONAL FOREST PRODUCT MARKETS: THE GFPM MODEL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was developed to upgrade the FAO methodology for forest products outlook projections. Its purpose is to analyze and project the consumption, production, trade, and prices of forest products. The system deals with 180 individual countries, three classes of roundwood, sawnwood, three kinds of panels, three of pulp, waste paper, and three types of paper and paperboard. The system is built on market equilibrium theory, with imperfect foresight. The short-term equilibrium is modeled by price-endogenous linear programming determining production, consumption, trade, and market-clearing prices in any given year, subject to short-term capacities of production. Year to year changes are represented by equations predicting shifts in demand due to GDP growth, capacity expansion as a function of profitability, and technical change. The forecasts are conditional on exogenous estimates of timber availability in each country. Inertia constraints limit the short-term adjustment of trade in response to market forces. Results of applications of the model to forecast the situation in European countries until 2010 are described.