Long-Term National Impacts of State-Level Policies: Preprint

This paper presents analysis conducted with the Wind Deployment System Model (WinDS) -- a model of capacity expansion in the U.S. electric sector. With 358 regions covering the United States, detailed transmission system representation, and an explicit treatment of wind intermittency and ancillary services, WinDS is uniquely positioned to evaluate the market impacts of specific state-level policies. This paper provides analysis results regarding the impact of existing state-level policies designed to promote wind-capacity expansion, including state portfolio standards, mandates, and tax credits. The results show the amount of wind deployment due to current state-level incentives as well as examine their lasting impact on the national wind industry. For example, state-level mandates increase industry size and lower costs, which result in wind capacity increases in states without mandates and greater market growth even after the policies expire. Although these policies are enacted by individual states, the cumulative effect must be examined at a national level. Finally, this paper examines the impact on wind-capacity growth by increasing the penalty associated with the state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPS). The results show national and regional wind energy deployment and generation through 2050.