Long-Term US Industrial Energy Use and CO2 Emissions

We present a description and scenario results from our recently-developed long-term model of United States industrial sector energy consumption, which we have incorporated as a module within the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model. This new industrial model focuses on energy technology and fuel choices over a 100 year period and allows examination of the industrial sector response to climate policies within a global modeling framework. A key challenge was to define a level of aggregation that would be able to represent the dynamics of industrial energy demand responses to prices and policies, but at a level that remains tractable over a long time frame. In our initial results, we find that electrification is an important response to a climate policy, although there are services where there are practical and economic limits to electrification, and the ability to switch to a low-carbon fuel becomes key. Cogeneration of heat and power using biomass may also play a role in reducing carbon emissions under a policy constraint.