Los modelos de flujos de comercio. Una aplicación en el caso de los lácteos

The impact of economic integration of the Southern Cone (MERCOSUR) and its effects on Argentinas, Brazil and Uruguay´s trade in dairy products are analyzed using a trade flow model. The model differentiates products by country of origin using an import demand that is determined in a two step procedure, using a single elasticity of substitution and the share of the exporting countries in each market. Simulation with the model allows us to conclude that integration will increase Uruguay and Argentine exports to Brazil, but it will have a marginal effect on Brazil´s global imports. Brazilian imports will depende basically on the common external tariff. Integration will not increase Uruguay´s dependence on Brazilian markets. This dependence will be related to income in Brazil´s market. Developed countries will be Uruguay´s principal competitors. Uruguay should increase exports in order to keep its share in Brazil´s market.