Low-carbon development pathways in developing Asia : evidence from modeling scenarios

Asia's development trajectory has important implications for achieving the globally agreed climate goal of limiting global warming to well below 2○C. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious effort to compile and compare thousands of model-scenario combinations from integrated assessment models. This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider low-carbon development pathways for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific. Overall, a comparison of the major models shows that strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal-a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia-and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation policies are efficient, as assumed in the models.