Managing irregular migration and return : framework for understanding and measuring pathways in and out of irregularity in the EU and in selected Member States

This report builds on previous JRC work on the challenges to measure the effectiveness of returning third-country nationals (TCN) staying irregularly in the European Union (EU) to their countries of origin, particularly in light of renewed EU policy ambitions on return. It aims to fill a key evidence gap by addressing the following questions: what are the trajectories of irregular thirdcountry nationals (TCNs) as they enter and exit the return process, and which data are available to quantify these trajectories? The report develops a policy-oriented map of irregularity pathways, investigating: i) how the failure to fulfil the conditions for entry or stay (including after an asylum rejection) can lead to a return decision; ii) the conditions under which a return decision is issued and, in some cases suspended; and iii) the return or access to a residence permit or authorisation to stay as a way to exit irregularity. This map is used to analyse national practices and to identify the data availability at EU and national level in five Member States: Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. While the potential of EU data is currently limited to quantifying the trajectories in and out of the return process, at the national level, more information can be harvested. The report's findings have important implications for policymakers seeking to improve the effectiveness of return and better manage irregular migration, and underscore the need for more harmonised data collection and common definitions to support evidence-based policy-making.