Mapping the decision to quit: A refinement and test of the unfolding model of voluntary turnover

We report a test of an influential theory of employee turnover: the unfolding model (Lee & Mitchell, 1994; Lee, Mitchell, Holtom, McDaniel, & Hill, 1999). We describe and critique this classificatory model, and propose both theory-based and empirical refinements. The two extant tests of the current version of the model have both been with accountants in the United States, so the generalisability of the model is as yet unproven. We present results of an attempt to classify 352 nurse leavers from the United Kingdom's National Health Service using the unfolding model. In contrast to the findings of Lee et al. (1999), the model failed to classify a substantial number of nurse leavers, and specific hypotheses derived from the model received only partial support. Classification failures were investigated using both quantitative and qualitative data. Leavers were more likely to be classified if they had no dependants and described their quit as avoidable. Although the unfolding model incorporates more kinds of turnover than traditional turnover models, such systematic classification failure casts doubt on claims that it offers a comprehensive account of turnover. We explain failures with reference to: (i) shortcomings in a key measure; (ii) the characteristics of the occupational group studied; and (iii) the extremely tight labor market for this group of leavers.