Mathematical Modeling of Pneumococcal Serotype Dynamics in Germany

Introduction: Two next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), a 15- and a 20-valent PCV (PCV15 and PCV20), have recently been licensed for use in adults (PCV15: EC decision Oct 14, 2021; PCV20: EC decision Feb 14, 2022). We developed a dynamical transmission model specific for Germany, with the aim to predict carriage prevalence and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) burden for serotypes included in these vaccines.Methods:The model allows to follow serotype distributions longitudinally both in the absence and presence of PCV vaccinations. We considered eight age cohorts and seven serotype groups according to the composition of different pneumococcal vaccines. Our model is the first to study potential dynamics of the additional serotypes included in PCV15 and PCV20 but not in PCV13.Results:The model predicted that by continuing the current vaccine policy (standard vaccination with PCV13 in children and with PPSV23 in adults) until 2031, IPD case counts due to any serotype in children <2 years of age will remain unchanged. There will be a continuous decrease of IPD cases in adults aged 16-59y, but a 20% increase in adults ≥60y. Furthermore, there will be a steady decrease of the proportion of carriage and IPD due to serotypes included in PCV7 and PCV13 over the model horizon and a steady rise of non-PCV13 serotypes in carriage and IPD. The highest increase for both pneumococcal carriage and absolute IPD case counts was predicted for serotypes 22F and 33F (included in both PCV15 and PCV20) and serotypes 8, 10A, 11A, 12F, and 15B (included in PCV20 only), particularly in older adults. Between 2022 and 2031, serotypes included in PCV20 only are expected to cause 19.7-25.3% of IPD cases in adults ≥60y.Conclusions:We conclude that introduction of next-generation PCVs for adults may prevent a substantial and increasing proportion of adult IPDs, with PCV20 having the potential to provide the broadest protection against pneumococcal disease