Measuring the evolution of microcomputer technology

People who are interested in evaluating and rating microcomputer technology need a single, composite measure which is rich enough to enable comparing machines of widely differing time periods, features and formats. Traditionally, computers are modeled by describing four primary features ‐ their CPU, available memory, and input/output (I/O) capabilities. Applying this general model to portable microcomputers, this paper uses a scoring model methodology to develop a composite measure for the portable microcomputer marketplace and then evaluates the model’s longitudinal performance. The technological scoring model methodology is a very pragmatic and highly subjective technique to derive a relative measure for identifying long‐term technological trends and rating/ranking individual machines one with another. Furthermore, employing the scoring model offers some unique challenges to the technological forecaster. However, the scoring model does seem to be a useful approach (at least for portable microcomputer technology) if used with due caution.