Method for the Analysis and Forecast of the Components' Evolution in an Aggregate Economic Phenomenon Using Their Weights : Application on the Exports of Eu-15 Countries from 1996 to 2005

In this article the authors propose a new method for the analysis and forecast of structural weights dynamics of an aggregate phenomenon. This method implies the analysis and forecast of real values' dynamics of the structural components of the aggregate phenomenon, structured by clusters, using their weights in aggregate phenomenon.By this analysis and forecast method we will obtain several advantages regarding the quality of regression equations parameters estimation and, implicitly, it improves the forecast quality based on such models