Methoden der Zukunfts- und Szenarioanalyse : Überblick, Bewertung und Auswahlkriterien

Facing growing complexity and uncertainty of social and environmental contexts, e.g. globalisation, climate change, dynamics of markets of energy and resources, geopolitical security risks and conflicts as well as technological change, it is more important than ever to reflect today’s decisions prospectively and to adjust them in a future-oriented and sustainable way. Therefore the work with scenarios provides a central tool. This study gives a structured overview over the broad range of scenario-methods, including important combinations with other methods of futures-analysis. Three ideal types of scenario techniques (scenarios based on trend-extrapolation, systematic-formalised scenariotechniques and creative-narrative scenario-techniques) are discussed regarding their origins and premises, their similarities and differences as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Combinations with other methods and techniques of scenario transfer are presented, too. Furthermore, a practical check-list has been developed, which allows specifying the methodological design of concrete foresight projects. This check-list focuses on key decisions to clarify if and how scenario-methods can be applied successfully and in a targeted manner.