Methodological Framework and Simulations for Evaluating the Impact of EU Enlargement on the Italian Economy

The impact of EU Eastern enlargement on a Member State, i.e. Italy, has been analysed with a very advanced methodological approach. The research has been carried on with a system of models including several multisectoral country models and a bilateral trade model which “truly” links the system. The most original contribution of this paper is to show that indirect effects from the impact of enlargement on the EU Member States and the other countries in the system may be much more relevant than the direct effects usually considered by using a “stand alone model”. Moreover, our multisectoral approach gives evidence of “losers” and “winners” among the sectors of the Italian economy after the Enlargement.