Migration and asylum flows to Germany : from facts to analysis

This study aims at analyzing the determinants of both general migration and asylum migration from less developed countries to Germany. To this end, a comprehensive migration model is set up that includes climate change, economic opportunities, links to Germany, home country characteristics (such as per capita income, population growth, poverty, consumer confidence, unemployment), the political and institutional situation in the sending countries (measured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and religious tensions, government stability, law and order, military in politics) and changes in German migration law. Panel data techniques (Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML)) for the estimation of the parameters of interest are employed using a panel of 131 origin/sending countries over the period of 1996-2017. The analysis reveals that political factors, institutional risk, and economic factors determine both overall migration and asylum migration. Economic factors are also determinants of asylum applications as asylum seekers most often come for a several reasons. Moreover, economic factors seem to have a disproportionately large impact on asylum requests in general. Climate change impacts migration in the expected direction, thus, increasing migration but only to a very small extent. However, the most interesting findings are revealed when considering important country groupings (main migration countries, major asylum countries, countries whose asylum applicants enjoy high, intermediate or low recognition rates).