Modeling nonlinear and heterogeneous dynamic linkages in international monetary markets

In this paper we examine the dynamic linkages of international monetary markets over the 2004 - 2009 period using daily short-term interbank interest rates of three of the most advanced countries (France, United Kingdom and United States). Empirical results from vector error-correction models (VECM) and smooth transition error-correction models (STECM) indicate strong evidence of nonlinear and heterogeneous causalities between the three interest rates considered. We also find that exogenous shifts in the US short-term interest rate led those in France and in the UK within a horizon of one to two days. Finally, the national interest rate nexus appears to nonlinearly converge towards a steady state or a common long-run equilibrium because it is subject to structural change beyond a certain interest rate threshold. Our findings have important implications for the actions of leading central banks (ECB, Bank of England, and US Fed) since the behavior of short-term interest rates can be viewed as an indicator of the degree of central banks’ policy interdependence.