Modeling of Traffic Flows in the Justification of Projects of Road Construction in Conditions of Concession

A method for studying the expected traffic flow distribution between toll and alternative roads based on user behavior principles is proposed. It is assumed that the user's behavior is rational: he always chooses the most suitable option. The proposed model takes into account the cost of fuel and lubricants, the time and toll of toll and alternative routes. This means that if the cost of toll and alternative roads is the same, the user will not care which route to choose. By changing the toll for 1 km, it is possible to affect the cost of the “expenses for the toll route” component and the corresponding traffic flow. Saturation of the road with vehicles will occur until, due to the complication of traffic on it, the total costs exceed those when driving another road. Analytical models are developed and proposed for: 1) toll determination; 2) traffic flow distribution between toll and alternative roads. The models provided information on the expected traffic flow distribution between toll and alternative routes. It is necessary for: 1) economic justification of project attractiveness for private investors and project feasibility under concession; 2) determination of traffic intensity, below which it is impractical for the authorities to set concession payments under the concession agreement. The use of the models proposed by the authors is presented on the materials of the project of the construction phase of the Great Kyiv Ring Road (Ukraine)