Modeling Succession on Irish Dairy Farms

This paper examines intergenerational succession on Irish dairy farms. The factors that influence the decision to enter dairying farming are examined using a binary choice logit model. Reasons that are frequently published in the popular farming press as being an obstacle to intergenerational succession are analysed and the significance of their effect is quantified. Results show that the level of education of the heir is the most significant factor in the succession decision. Heir's with third level education are 30% less likely to enter dairy farming than their second level only educated counterparts. The sizes of milk quota and income that are associated with high probabilities of succession are identified.