MODELING THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED IMPORTATION OF FRESH PRODUCE FROM EMERGING SUPPLY SOURCES TO THE UK

The risk of non-indigenous pests entering theUK via international trade in fresh produce isincreasing. Suppliers of fresh produce to UK and EUmultiple retailers are utilising new procurement areasfor fresh produce importation to reduce their costs ofproduction. The objective of this paper is to identifycurrent and future supply sources for UK fresh produceimporters and examine the extent to which they provideinvasion pathways. The hypothesis that increasedimportation of fresh produce from new sources outsidethe EU could increase the risks of non-indigenous pestsis tested in a bio-economic model in which the number ofspecies detections per unit of imports is a function of thenumber of inspections per unit of imports and countryof origin, while the volume of imports is itself a functionof the gross domestic product, relative import prices,policy and seasonality variables. The study has identifiedclear trends, which show import volumes and pestspecies detections increasing from new supply sources.The study found that risk of pest species differssignificantly with the country of origin of commodity. Ifthis trend should continue in the future, then UK planthealth inspectors should expect to confront pest speciesin much greater numbers. The results support the casefor discriminatory policy to use the limited resourcesavailable in a way that will more closely targetinspection efforts on the higher risk trade pathways.