Modelling CAP Decoupling in the EU:A Comparison of Selected SimulationModels and Results

This article reviews ways of representing the effects of decoupling in the EuropeanUnion (EU) on land allocation and production in eight selected simulationmodels (AGLINK, AG-MEMOD, CAPRI, CAPSIM, ESIM, FAPRI, GOALand GTAP). It then compares the simulated effects of decoupling and tracesthem back to the model specifications and parameter assumptions. In particular,roughage is not included in most models, so that changes in ruminant productionare not necessarily consistent with the changes in fodder area. Models also differin the extent to which they reflect the substitution possibilities in ruminant feeds.Notwithstanding the considerable differences in model types and specifications,all the studies considered here predict that as a result of decoupling, areas allocatedto cereals (and silage maize) and beef and sheep production in the EU-15will decline, while fodder area will increase. Differences in the projections aboutpasture, oilseed and set-aside areas can be attributed to different model or scenariospecifications. The most important factor affecting the results is the extentto which the models assume that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2003Reform (regarding Single Farm Payments) involves a substantial decoupling ofsupport compared with the baseline (Agenda 2000) policy....