Modelling Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): In Quest of Statistics

Climate change is a natural and dynamic phenomenon resulting from complex interrelationships between physical, environmental and human factors. The sustainability of life on earth depends partly on the ability of mankind to maintain this natural and balanced flow of such gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor traping heat. Unfortunately, human beings contribute significantly to the presence of such gases known as Green House Gases (GHGs) through agricultural and industrial activities. The implications are the excess trap of sunlight and the blocking of outward radiation. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the importance of agriculture cannot be stressed enough given that it is central to economic growth and most of economic activities in the region is still dependent on agricultural expansion. The crux of the matter is that, in Africa, the bulk of agricultural output is still produced by smallholder farmers who unfortunately continue to depend on climate variability. Hence understanding the relationships between climate variability and agricultural production is therefore critical to SSA countries. Unfortunately, the statistics base on climate change is currently very poor and the provision of these statistics is compelling and will contribute significantly to the understanding of the impacts of these changes to agriculture, our livelihoods and economic development. Recent and upcoming events witness these concerns. This paper attempts to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for exploring the magnitude of climate variability in the explanation of agricultural production in Sub- Saharan Africa. Despite the statistics constraints, it is expected that the design and testing of theoretical model on climate change will not only attract interests in investing in climate changes statistics but also provide better understanding of the relationships between individual and aggregate crop production performances and insights for policies directions as pertaining to SSA countries.