MODELLING IMPACTS OF SOME EUROPEAN BIOFUEL MEASURES

Against the background of increasing concerns regarding the energy supply security as well asenvironmental concern the interest for renewable energy sources has increased in recent years. Thebiofuel sector, backed by public policies, experienced a strong increase in and outside Europe. Amethodology that allows for the estimation of the impacts of the fulfilment of the proposed biofueltargets in the EU member states is proposed and implemented in the AGMEMOD model for Franceand Germany. The so called normative approach, based on the use of a logistic function as biofueldemand function allows to perform simulations to assess the impact of the biofuel demand expansionon agricultural markets. The implemented approach and the simulation results indicate that cropsproduction would adjust to the modified demand situation and depending on the proposed scenario thedomestic supply would not be enough for the achievement of the biofuel targets in France andGermany.