Models and Relations in Economics and Econometrics

Based on a money market analysis the paper discusses possible pitfalls in acroeconomic inference related to inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady-states, speed of adjustment, feed-back and interaction effects, and driving forces are addressed within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model. The economic notion of anticipated and unanticipated shocks to a system is discussed from an econometric point of view.