More than protectionism: unbundling U.S. motives in the trade and technological war with China

This article examines the underlying motives behind the United States' trade and technological conflict with China since 2018. While the measures undertaken-ranging from tariffs and export controls to investment screening and industrial policy-are often interpreted through the lens of economic protectionism, this paper argues that standard economic theories fail to account for their full scope, intensity, and strategic focus. The article systematically evaluates four leading economic explanations for protectionist behavior-trade balance correction, commodity structure of trade upgrading, terms of trade manipulation, and strategic trade policy-and demonstrates their limitations in explaining the U.S.-China case. It then proposes an alternative analytical framework that integrates realist international relations theory with a modified version of the mercantilist perspective on the commodity structure of trade which incorporates a retaliatory mechanism. This interdisciplinary approach better captures the combined geopolitical and economic underpinnings of U.S. protectionist policies aimed at China, in particular efforts to curb China's technological rise in semiconductors and dual-use sectors. This interdisciplinary approach contributes to the literature on economic statecraft by incorporating national security concerns into trade policy analysis.