Movimentos Especulativos de Capitais e Comportamento da Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil

This paper analyse the influences of speculative capital movements on exchange rate levels and its volatility in Brazil. Approaches based only in fundamentals are unable to explain some empirical regularity. The speculative behaviour needs to be considered. In particular, empirical works indicates that its fundamental value is a long run trend frequently shifted, suggesting that such rate is, at most, a sequence of temporary equilibria. Our extended model dealing with international arbitrage point out some difficulties of the Central Bank to manage the exchange rate in an environment of financial globalisation. To constrain capital flows may reduce volatility and to restore official possibility to control exchange rate.