Non-Bayesian updating : a theoretical framework

Larry G. Epstein, Jawwad Noor, Alvaro Sandroni

This paper models an agent in a multi-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans. Choice-theoretic axiomatic foundations are provided to capture updating biases that reflect excessive weight given to either prior beliefs, or alternatively, to observed data. A counterpart of the exchangeable Bayesian learning model is also described.

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Year of publication:	June 2008
Authors:	Epstein, Larry G. ; Noor, Jawwad ; Sandroni, Alvaro
Published in:	Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in economic theory. - Toronto : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ISSN 1555-7561, ZDB-ID 2220447-7. - Vol. 3.2008, 2, p. 193-229
Subject:	Non-Bayesian updating \| temptation and self-control \| overreaction \| underreaction \| learning \| law of small numbers \| Lernprozess \| Learning process \| Bayes-Statistik \| Bayesian inference \| Präferenztheorie \| Theory of preferences \| Lernen \| Learning \| Verhaltensökonomik \| Behavioral economics

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Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Aufsatz in Zeitschrift ; Article in journal
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/150110 [Handle]
Classification:	D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011700399