On the predictability of knowledge formation : the tortuous link between regional specialisation, trade and development

The paper examines the relation between industrial mix and regional productivity growth. For this purpose, a dynamic model of the open economy with differentiated sectoral knowledge formation and incomplete interregional knowledge diffusion is constructed. The theoretical framework is first used to show the consequences of increasing globalisation on regional growth. It is then applied to German regional data in order to investigate whether there is evidence of generally specified patterns of knowledge formation. It emerges that some causal relationships are robust for the case of German regions but cannot be exploited by economic policy in general.