OS IMPACTOS DA ALCA SOBRE AS EXPORTAÇÕES AGRÍCOLAS BRASILEIRAS

In the last decade of the century XX, the main integration enterprises with that Brazil was involved was the Market Common of the South (MERCOSUL) and the negotiations around the formation of the Area of free trade of America (FTTA). The regional integration with the commercial liberalization benefitted the Brazilian agricultural section deeply and today the country comes in the scenery of the FTTA as the second largest exporter of agricultural products of the block. The effects suffered by trade are directly related to early trade restrictions, which were imposed to the partners and the volume of trade first verified amongst them. Considering such aspect, this study intends to capture the probable effects of the Brazilian adhesion to FTAA in relation to the exportation of coffee, cacao, soy, sugar, orange juice and meat the period of 1999-2002. That analysis is made under the optics of the partial equilibrium developed through equations proposed by Laid and Yeats (1986) so as to estimate the first order effect, i.e., the reduction of trade restrictions through the elasticities approach. The conclusion to draw in relation to the simulations made for the period 1999-2002 - in the case of total liberalization of the trade restrictions imposed to Brazil by the FTAA member-countries - is that, for the group of products studied the effect trade creation turns out to be superior to the effect trade diversion, showing Brazilian agrobusiness as competitive inside FTAA.