Policy, prediction and growth: picking start‐up winners?

Based on a number of detailed, in‐depth, cases selected from 30 face‐to‐face company interviews and placed in the context of the literature, this paper will argue that targeted financial support of start‐ups, the notion of “picking winners”, is not a viable alternative to blanket cover. These selected cases serve to illustrate the complexity and variability of small firm development which, in turn, negates the validity of pre‐start predictive modelling for this sector. The paper will proceed to argue, on the basis of the evidence, that, since the form which an organisation takes and the ability of an entrepreneur to manage within the given environment are, to a greater extent, dictated post start‐up, only then can firms with significant growth potential be identified. Thus, since a firm’s true form and promise is uncertain pre‐entry, any criteria used to isolate those with the greatest potential will be, at best, arbitrary.