Political determinants of municipal accounts: Quasi-experimental evidence from Portugal

This study investigates the impact of electing a majority in a municipality's legislative body on different items of the local current and capital accounts. Inference is based on a RDD approach and a dataset containing electoral and financial information for a sample of 278 homogeneous municipalities over 32 years. Results provide evidence of a significant causal impact of treatment on the most relevant items of the current and capital revenue and expenditure accounts. In particular, municipalities ruled by a legislative majority raise more revenues through current and capital transfers, but also have higher expenditures with personnel and investment goods.