POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SICILIAN CEREAL CROPPING IN THE LIGHT OF CURRENT TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

This paper sets out the results of a research project carried out by the University ofPalermo and financed by the Sicilian Region, which aims to establish the impact of theFischler Reform on Sicilian agriculture, and to project future scenarios that take into accountsome of the changes that the production process may undergo in the Region, following boththe application of the Reform itself (now in force) and the eventual application of indicationscontained in the Health check.The impacts of the Fischler Reform, and especially the application of the SinglePayment scheme to companies, were examined in cereal cropping companies, especiallyconsidering the significant amount of durum wheat cultivation in vast areas of the Region’shilly and its strategic importance for many areas where there is a risk of farming beingabandoned, with grave consequences for the territory and its farmland, for employment andfor the encouragement of food and processing industries.The chosen means for assessing the effects of the reform was that of direct interviewsat a statistically representative sample made up of 400 agricultural companies, determiningpossible earnings within the current situation, but also in the eventuality of some of theindications in the Health check being applied.The results indicate that Community aid plays a crucial role in the companies lookedat, allowing them to remain on the market. Indeed, the elimination of the aid planned withinthe framework of the Common Agricultural Policy in the hypothetical scenarios showed anegative impact on earnings for the companies and could cause their exclusion from themarket.