POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GM WHEAT ON UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHEAT TRADE

The potential introduction of genetically modified (GM) wheat has both supporters and opponents waging battle in the popular press and scholarly research. Supporters highlight the benefits to producers, while the opponents highlight the unknown safety factors for consumers.The topic is very important to the United States, as a large portion of the wheat production is exported overseas. Consumer groups in some countries are resisting GM wheat. This study utilizes a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the trade impacts associated with GM wheat introduction along with several assumed post-GM adoption scenarios. Wheat is converted into protein equivalents to allow for substitution between wheat classes. The importance of the U.S. handling/transportation system is highlighted in the ability of the system to develop an affordable and effective segregation system for GM wheat. Producers who do not produce GM wheat would face externalities associated with GM wheat contamination of non-GM wheat.