Power generation expansion pathways : a policy analysis of the Cameroon power system

The Cameroon electricity sector is currently plagued by inadequate generation capacity. The electricity supply deficit has had dire consequences on attaining the country's industrialization, socioeconomic and developmental objectives enshrined in her Vision 2035. However, there are sustainable solutions that minimizes the required new capacity planned by the government. This paper analyses the implications of these sustainable policies on the electricity generation system of Cameroon. An adaptation of the Schwartz's methodology and the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), integrated with the Next Energy Modelling system for Optimization (NEMO) was used to develop least-costs scenarios of Cameroon from 2016 to 2045. These scenarios are based on the key factors that would influence the electricity supply/demand of Cameroon. In addition to the business-as-usual scenario which defines the least-cost pathway with no policy interventions, the three alternative scenario categories are: power losses, demand side energy efficiency measures and carbon dioxide emission targets. Results show the alternative scenarios have significant benefits in avoided installed capacity, financial savings and avoided greenhouse gas emissions. This is emphasized by capacity savings of up to 44%, translating to possible economic benefits of up to 25% depending on government's commitment to reducing power losses. Furthermore, potential for emission trading is limited, although it becomes more appealing under a zero-carbon emission transition target in the electricity system. Therefore, the state should prioritize the reduction of power losses and enacting energy efficiency polices if it aims to safely and reliably minimize the energy needed for its economic growth.