Power of personalized smoking cessation : a quantitative lifecycle framework for policy evaluation

Evidence suggests that smokers' responsiveness to cessation medication depends on genotypes. Whether personalized treatment based on genotypes is cost effec- tive compared to standard treatments, however, has been unexplored. We thus construct a lifecycle model with endogenous health evolution and life expectancy and with heterogeneities in genotypes, demographics, and adolescent smoking. We examine the cost effectiveness of three intervention policies: (i) a standard policy where all smokers receive counseling and medication, (ii) a standard pol- icy where some smokers receive counseling and others receive counseling and medication, and (iii) a personalized policy based on genotypes. The personalized policy proves the most cost effective: every dollar of program cost generates about $29 and $40 in value measured over the lifecycle for smokers treated at age 37 and 52, respectively, about 16-22% higher than the two standard policies.