Prediction and Uncertainty in Computational Modeling of Complex Phenomena: A Whitepaper

This report summarizes some challenges associated with the use of computational science to predict the behavior of complex phenomena. As such, the document is a compendium of ideas that have been generated by various staff at Sandia. The report emphasizes key components of the use of computational to predict complex phenomena, including computational complexity and correctness of implementations, the nature of the comparison with data, the importance of uncertainty quantification in comprehending what the prediction is telling us, and the role of risk in making and using computational predictions. Both broad and more narrowly focused technical recommendations for research are given. Several computational problems are summarized that help to illustrate the issues we have emphasized. The tone of the report is informal, with virtually no mathematics. However, we have attempted to provide a useful bibliography that would assist the interested reader in pursuing the content of this report in greater depth.