Prediction with Univariate Time Series Models: the Iberia Case.

In this paper the authors model the monthly number of passengers flying with the Spanish airline Iberia from January 1985 to December 1992 and predict future values of the series up to October 1994. Those series are characterized by strong seasonal variations and by having an upward trend which has a rupture during 1990 with the slope changing to be negative. They compare obeseved values with predictions made by a deterministic components model, the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing filter, an ARIMA model and a structural time series model.