Preventing environmental crime and human vulnerability through the MGPOC framework: The case of Zimbabwe's lithium industry

Based on a research in progress, the 'micro-geopolitics of organised crime' (MGPOC) framework examines how and why organised crime groups (OCGs) around the globe develop illicit economies associated to natural resources. The foundational premise underlying the MGPOC is that OCGs vie for contested resources-rich territories, transport routes, and access to national and international markets in order to secure strategic hubs of illicit wealth, influence and power, thus creating conditions for large-scale violence primordially at a local scale. The present methodology article represents a step forward in the research agenda. Its purpose is to test-and refine-the MGPOC as an actionable early-warning tool aimed to prevent OCGs from creating illicit economies out of environmental commodities. The article is also keen on highlighting the nefarious ramifications of environmental crime to human vulnerability, particularly to democratic governance, environmental sustainability and citizen security. Because a concrete case study is central to this strategic intelligence assessment, the article analyses lithium in Zimbabwe-Africa's largest producer and world's sixth-and the variables that might enable organised crime to tap into this industry, especially as this metal becomes increasingly critical in the energy sector's transition towards a low-carbon future.