Projections of national demand and workforce requirements for general practice in Ireland, 2023-2040: Based on the Hippocrates model

Planning for future healthcare needs is essential for ensuring the safe and effective delivery of healthcare services in the coming years. A number of studies have shown that demand for health and social care services will increase in Ireland in the coming years due to a growing and ageing population. In recent years, a number of factors, including higher than projected population growth, the COVID19 pandemic and government policies and reforms, have had significant implications for the demand and delivery of healthcare services. Consequently, earlier projections of healthcare demand may be somewhat outdated. As part of the Department of Health/Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Research Programme in Healthcare Reform, the ESRI used the Hippocrates model to provide up-to-date projections for three services areas - public acute hospitals, general practice and older peoples' services. The aim of the analysis in this report is to estimate the baseline and future projections for the demand for general practice services, along with the associated workforce requirements. These projections are based on data availability and the policy environment at the time of undertaking the analysis. A number of factors contribute to potential uncertainties in these projections, including disruption to the demand and delivery of healthcare services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, limited available data on general practice and a number of proposed and implemented reforms, which will impact on general practice in the coming years. Various approaches were used in the analysis to overcome these uncertainties.