Public transport reliability and season ticket ownership : the case of the Deutschlandticket

This paper provides a systematic analysis of peoples’ decision to purchase the Deutschlandticket, identifying primary customer groups and the role of public transport irregularities such as delays and cancellations. It builds on a panel dataset covering survey answers from almost 3000 participants between March and December 2023 and applies a series of binary logit models. The results confirm that the main customer group of the Deutschlandticket consists of younger people and (fulltime) workers. The ticket does not significantly contribute to a modal shift towards public transport, as it is primarily purchased by people who were frequent public transport users or even owners of a season ticket already in the past, whereas car owners refrain from purchasing the ticket. It cannot be confirmed that an increase in public transport reliability could boost ownership of the Deutschlandticket, as the impact of irregularities on the purchase decision is small and limited to specific subgroups.