Random forests for labor market analysis: Balancing precision and interpretability

Machine learning is increasingly used in social science research, especially for prediction. However, the results are sometimes not as straight-forward to interpret compared to classic regression models. In this paper, we address this trade-off by comparing the predictive performance of random forests and logit regressions to analyze labor market vulnerabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a global surrogate model to enhance our understanding of the complex dynamics. Our study shows that, especially in the presence of non-linearities and feature interactions, random forests outperform regressions both in predictive accuracy and interpretability, yielding policy-relevant insights on vulnerable groups affected by labor market disruptions.