This investigation addresses a practical question from an agricultural planning and management perspective: are the NOAA/CPC seasonal climate forecasts skillful enough to retain utility after they have been downscaled to field and daily scales for use in crop models to predict impacts on crop production? Utility is defined herein as net forecast dependabilities of at least 50%, where net dependability is the product of the large-scale 3-month forecast dependability with a factor accounting for losses in dependability due to the higher spatiotemporal variability of 1-month station data. This loss factor is estimated from station data by computing the frequency of matching sign (FOMS) between the direction of departures from average of 3-month forecast division values and 1-month station values, for average temperature and precipitation, over a 10-year study period and 96 stations in six regions of the U.S. The resulting FOMS does not display any consistent differences across regions, locations, or months, so is averaged across all months and stations. Average FOMS calculated in this manner are 76% for average temperature and 66% for total precipitation. The decimal FOMS are then used as the multiplicative loss factor on previously reported 3-month forecast division reliability values to produce estimates of the net reliability for downscaled forecasts at locations within each forecast division. The resulting guidance is dependent on region and forecast variable, with the forecasts for above-average temperature emerging as worthy of consideration for use in agricultural applications over the majority of the contiguous U.S. The Northeast, the Great Lakes, parts of the Northern Great Plains, interior California, and northwest Nevada are the only regions with insufficient net dependability to preclude immediate consideration. Conversely, forecasts for cooler than average temperature do not retain sufficient net dependability after downscaling to be an attractive option in any part of the contiguous U.S. at this time. Forecasts for wetter or drier than average conditions retained sufficient net dependability to encourage further development over only about 10% of the contiguous U.S., in regions well-known to experience the strongest ENSO impacts on precipitation. The forecast divisions where agricultural decision support might benefit from NOAA/CPC seasonal precipitation forecasts are located in Florida, south Texas, southwest New Mexico, Arizona, central and southern California, and parts of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana.
