Reference foresight scenarios on the global standing of the European Union in 2040

Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. Foresight scenarios are a practical tool that can help improve decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. To increase preparedness for an uncertain future, the JRC facilitated a foresight process to develop four reference foresight scenarios. This participatory process was based on the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and engaged more than 100 experts. The reference foresight scenarios explore the global standing of the European Union in 2040. In total, they depict four distinct and plausible futures: Storms, End Game, Struggling Synergies, and Opposing Views. The reference scenarios can support decisionmakers in several ways, for example by stresstesting current and future policies and policy initiatives, by raising strategic discussions and discussing future implications for a specific policy field, and by increasing futures literacy. This report summarises the results of a foresight process to develop Reference foresight scenarios of the future global standing of the European Union (EU) in 2040. Foresight scenarios are a tool for improving strategy development and decision-making in the contexts of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have shown that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected has become increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decisionmakers increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances.