Regional development trends in the EU : ex post evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes 2007-2013, focusing on the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Cohesion Fund (CF) : WP1: synthesis report

The report is divided into two main parts. The first part adopts a long-term perspective, examining the changes in regional disparities in economic performance across the EU over the period since 1980 - or at least up to 2011, the latest year for which the relevant data are available. Its concern is to put into perspective the changes which have occurred over recent years, particularly over the period since the financial crisis struck the global economy in 2008, leading to economic recession in Europe followed by a period of at best slow growth and at worst further falls in activity. It attempts, therefore, to distinguish the longer-term trends in regional disparities from what has happened during cyclical upturns and downturns, especially the most recent experience. This is important in order to have some idea of developments in the underlying disparities which Cohesion policy is attempting to tackle, to separate these out from the changes in the extent of disparities which are a consequence of the economic situation which has prevailed across the EU since 2008 and which could be reversed when and if a generalised economic recovery occurs. The second part focuses on developments during the 2007-2013 period itself, again dividing regions according to the financial support received under Cohesion policy over the period as well as, in this case, their geographical location since this - and more particularly the country in which they are situated - tends to have a significant influence on their performance. The concern is to examine the comparative changes in both GDP per head and employment over the period in different groups of regions in relation to changes over previous programming periods to see to what extent there are differences in what happened. The purpose is mainly descriptive, though the urban or rural nature of regions and their characteristics in terms of the relative importance of different sectors of economic activity - i.e. whether they tend, for example, to be mainly industrial or mainly financial and business service regions - are also considered to see if there is any prima facie evidence of these affecting developments. In addition, disparities in 'non-economic' factors between the regional groups are examined too to see whether these vary in a similar way as the economic factors, though in practice, the factors concerned, though non-economic in a strict sense, are likely to have repercussions on the regional economy and to some extent may underlie the economic disparities which are observed. This is the case, in particular, with educational attainment levels or migration trends.