Relative Forecasting and Hedging Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets in the European Union: Evidence for Slaughter Hog Contracts

The paper aims at analyzing the potentials for reducing income risk and income variation for slaughter hog producers in Germany and Holland by participating at futures markets in Amsterdam or Hannover. The relative market and hedging efficiency for the Amsterdam stock exchange markets is tested and the optimal hedge ratio is derived for minimizing risk and variance of slaughter hog gross margins (income). Relative market efficiency and a significant impact of hedging on income risk and variance can not be rejected. The results show that the optimal hedge ratio is smaller for variance compared to risk minimizing hedging strategy.