Relative Impact of the Norway-EU Salmon Agreement: A Midterm Assessment

An agreement between Norway and the European Commission specifies an increase in the export tax on Norwegian salmon entering EU markets from 0.75% to 3.00% effective 1 July 1997. Further, Norway's exports are subject to a price floor and quantity ceiling, neither of which were binding over the evaluation period. Since the tax's proceeds are to be used by Norway to fund generic marketing of Atlantic salmon, it is possible that the agreement is winwin, i.e., benefits United Kingdom and Norwegian producers alike. To test this, we use an equilibrium displacement model to estimate the agreement's effects on prices, trade flows, and producer welfare. Results based on data through 1999 suggest the agreement is indeed win-win, but that currency realignments and feed quota policy can easily neutralize or obscure the effects.