Research and Development, Uncertainty, and Analysts’ Forecasts : The Case of IAS 38

This paper analyzes the consequences of the capitalization of development expenditures under IAS 38 on analysts' earnings forecasts. We use unique hand-collected data in a sample of highly research and development (R&D) intensive German listed firms over the period 2000 to 2007. We find that the capitalization of development costs is significantly associated with both higher individual analysts' forecast errors and forecast dispersion. This suggests that the increasing complexity surrounding the capitalization of development costs negatively impacts forecast accuracy. However, for firms with high underlying environmental uncertainty, forecast errors are negatively associated with capitalized development expenditures. This indicates that the negative impact of increased complexity on forecast accuracy can be outweighed by the information contained in the signals from capitalized development costs when the underlying environmental uncertainty is high. The findings contribute to the ongoing controversial debate on the accounting for self-generated intangible assets. Our results provide useful insights on the link between capitalization of development costs, environmental uncertainty, and analysts' forecasts for accounting academics and practitioners alike