Risk assessment for the 2024 in-service verification (ISV) of CO2 emissions of light-duty vehicles : risk assessment ISV 2024 according to Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866

Article 13 of Regulation (EU) 2019/631 requires the type-approval authorities to verify the CO2 emission and fuel consumption values of light-duty vehicles in-service. Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2867 sets out the guiding principles and criteria for defining the procedures for that verification, while Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866 determines the actual verification procedures. Article 3(4) of that Implementing Regulation requires the Commission to set out a methodology for assessing the risk that in-service verification (ISV) families may include vehicles with a deviation in the CO2 emission values and to publish each year a report describing that methodology and listing those families with the highest risk of including such vehicles. JRC has been tasked to perform the risk assessment on behalf of the Commission. When assessing the risk, at least the elements mentioned in Article 3(3) of the Implementing Regulation need to be taken into account, when available. The type-approval authorities must use the Commission's risk assessment as a basis for selecting the families for their in-service verification. This is the first annual report describing the methodology for the assessment, and the main findings. The risk assessment methodology described is based on a Composite Risk Index (CRI), which combines the probability and severity of a specific occurrence. Probability levels are determined based on the total number of new vehicles from the in-service verification family that have been placed on the Union market. For the severity determination, the data collected pursuant to Article 14 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/392 and through the Commission's market surveillance test campaigns have been utilized. The real-world data, as referred to in Article 3(3)(e) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866, has not yet been used for this risk assessment due to the limited number of such data submitted so far. This report also identifies the ISV families with the highest risk of including vehicles with a deviation in CO2 emissions values. These families are labelled as ISV families with the first testing priority in 2024. Based on the risk assessment, a total of 131 interpolation families, representing 106 ISV families, have been identified as having such high risk. Additionally, a significant number of interpolation families were reported as part of the annual CO2 monitoring for light-duty vehicles, but could not be found amongst those reported to the Commission under Article 14 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/392. Therefore, a number (66) of those missing interpolation families with the highest vehicle registration numbers in the last three years has been selected as high risk, and labelled as ISV families with the first testing priority for the 2024 in-service verification. To further support the vehicle selection for the 2024 in-service verification, this report also presents a random selection of additional IP families both registered and not registered in Database of In-service verification of CO2 Emissions (DICE). Finally, all remaining families that are not registered in DICE are also presented.